← Capybara Cards Store Championship
Fire AggroTier 1
at Capybara Cards Store Championship
decks
3
(9.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
6-8-2
overall winrate
43.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.5%
avg ELO -1.0 per match
expected value
52.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1287
· median 1295
· range 1250–1315
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1084
Q1 1202
Q3 1382
1584
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 31.2% | 3 | 1-0-2 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.2% | +5.4 |
| Water Genbu | 9.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +1.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.8% | +3.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +8.9 |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.6% | -3.3 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.7% | -8.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
